The global economy in 2025 faces major challenges, with 56 per cent of chief economists predicting a downturn and only 17 per cent expecting improvement, according to the World Economic Forum.
In the most recent Chief Economists Outlook, 44 per cent of economists forecast robust growth, up from just 15 per cent the previous year, suggesting that the U.S. may see a short-term boost.
But the outlook is less promising for other major economies. Europe remains the weakest region, with 74 per cent of economists expecting weak growth, and China’s economy is set to slow further due to low consumer demand and weaker productivity, making the global recovery feel uneven.
The report also highlights how economists anticipate changes in trade, migration, and policy prompted by the U.S. presidential election. Though the U.S. economy is expected to do well in 2025, the issues of rising public debt at 97 per cent and inflation at 94 per cent remain.
Additionally, most economists expect a drop in goods trade and challenges for services and there will likely be tighter controls on labor, technology, and data as political and security issues come into play. This will likely drive up costs for businesses and consumers with companies needing to rethink supply chains, move operations to regional markets, and focus on core markets.
Meanwhile, nearly half of economists believe global trade volumes will rise in 2025, highlighting the resilience of international trade. But many also expect that protectionism, conflicts, sanctions, and national security concerns will lead to more trade tensions. At the same time, 82 per cent of those surveyed expect a boost in regional trade over the next three years.
World Economic Forum head of economic growth and transformation Aengus Collins says: “The latest Chief Economists Outlook reveals a global economy under considerable strain. The growth outlook is at its weakest in decades and political developments both domestically and internationally highlight how contested economic policy has become. In this environment, fostering a spirit of collaboration will require more commitment and creativity than ever.”
