GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could reduce UK mortality by 5.1 per cent and US mortality by up to 6.4 per cent by 2045, according to new research from Swiss Re.
The reinsurer says the drugs could help reverse stalled life expectancy trends in developed markets, where obesity now affects more than 40 per cent of US adults and 30 per cent in the UK and is linked to seven of the ten leading causes of death.
But Swiss Re’s baseline projection predicts a 3.2 per cent mortality reduction in the UK and a 4 per cent reduction in the US by 2045, based on widespread but not universal drug use and mixed lifestyle change outcomes.
It warns that the full benefit will only be realised if uptake is high, patients stay on treatment long term and lifestyle changes support weight loss. But without these weight regain is common and mortality improvements fall to just 2.3 per cent in the US and 1.8 per cent in the UK.
Swiss Re CEO life & health reinsurance Paul Murray says: “GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication. As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives.”
Swiss Re head of L&H global underwriting, claims and R&D Natalie Kelly says: “GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we’ve been waiting for to reshape mortality trends. The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks.”
