The state pension is set to rise by 3.9 per cent in April 2027 after official figures showed average earnings growth of 3.9 per cent in the year to July 2026.
According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the state pension could rise from £241.30 to £250.70 a week. This is if earnings remain at 3.9 per cent and September inflation is lower, increasing the yearly payment from £12,548 to £13,036.
Meanwhile, the old basic state pension will rise from £184.90 a week to £192.10 or around £9,989 a year.
Under the triple lock, the state pension rises each year by either inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5 per cent, whichever is highest.
The final increase will be confirmed in October, when September inflation is published, while the July earnings figure is provisional and could also be revised.
Additionally, the new state pension is expected to exceed the frozen personal tax allowance from April 2027, even if the triple lock increase is only 2.5 per cent.
The government has said pensioners who receive only the state pension will not have to pay income tax, but has not yet explained how this will work. LCP analysis suggests one in 16 pensioners could benefit.
LCP partner at pension consultants Steve Webb says: “Under the triple lock formula, the new state pension will rise next April by the highest of the growth in wages, prices or 2.5 per cent. Based on today’s figures, it is highly likely that it will be average earnings growth which comes out on top. Those on the new state pension can expect to see an increase of nearly £500 per year next April. But the sting in the tail is that this will take the standard rate of the new state pension above the tax threshold. The Government’s plans to address this point are a mess, and likely to benefit only a small fraction of pensioners. They will also create unfairness between different groups of pensioners and between pensioners and low-paid workers, who do not qualify for any exemption
AJ Bell head of public policy Rachel Vahey says: “Based on today’s earnings figures for July, the odds are that pensioners will be receiving just shy of £500 extra in their state pension next year
“Although we still need to see September’s inflation figure and any revisions to July’s earnings growth before we know for definite how much it will increase by in 2027, it’s looking very likely that the value of the full new state pension will surge past £13,000 – and the personal allowance – for the first time.
“Even using the lowest measure of 2.5 per cent under the triple lock means the full state pension amount would exceed the personal allowance of £12,570. The government has said people in receipt of state pension income only above the personal allowance will not have to pay income tax on the benefit, although details on exactly how this will work remain thin on the ground.
“Up to now, politicians of all stripes have pledged allegiance to the triple lock. But as Chancellor John Healey drafts Budget plans on how the UK can face up to its fiscal challenges, it could be that cracks in this cast-iron support may start to show. The longer this unexploded fiscal bomb is left untouched, the harder it will be to diffuse – and the greater the chance proposed state pension age increases will need to be accelerated to balance the books.
“A sensible approach would be to set a target for the triple lock policy, most likely a value of the state pension as a proportion of median earnings, and then a pledge to peg state pension increases to earnings growth or inflation. Any party that wanted to oppose such an approach would need to present a credible alternative, and keeping the triple lock forever certainly doesn’t fit with the government’s desire for long-term fiscal responsibility.
“Under the triple lock guarantee, the state pension increases by the highest of the rise in prices for September, average earnings growth for the three-month period ending in July, or 2.5 per cent
“It’s expected the CPI inflation rate up to September – which is due to be announced in mid-October – is unlikely to exceed the Bank of England’s predicted maximum of 3.2 per cent for inflation in 2026. If these recent earnings figures form the basis for the increase, and the state pension increases by 3.9 per cent, it would be worth around £13,036 a year for pensioners – well in excess of the frozen personal allowance.
“Even assuming the state pension then increases in line with the lowest rate possible under the triple lock of 2.5 per cent until April 2031, it would then be worth almost £1,500 more than the personal allowance, meaning many more pensioners will be taxed on their income.
“Last year during her Budget speech, former chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that once the state pension clears the frozen personal allowance, pensioners whose sole income is the state pension will not be faced with the administrative hassle of simple assessment tax returns
“Collecting the little bits of tax owed from millions of pensioners was always going to be an administrative headache for the government. So it’s no wonder they’ve put their tax-collecting thinking caps on to find ways to avoid it.
“How this policy will work and how any tax will be collected remains to be seen. The government stated that this will apply to people whose sole income is the state pension, but it wasn’t clear what else would be counted as income – let alone whether it would include income within tax allowances, tax-free income or those state pension increments, such as deferred state pension income or SERPS.
“We are yet to see any more details, and under the new Burnham administration this policy remains mired in uncertainty. Pensioners within this group are naturally starting to ask questions, but time will tell how the proposals shape up and whether they’ll actually make pensioners’ lives simpler.”
