The figures come from data analysed by spread betting platform IG Group. The prediction is based on the political markets IG has created for clients to trade on, including the number of seats parties may win, the parliamentary majority outcome and who will be Prime Minister after the general election.
IG says the only movement in the political market since the election campaign began in late March is a Miliband surge. Its data suggests that Miliband lowest point was 12th March when the market gave him a 34 per cent chance of winning. Since then the Labour Party leader has been making gains on David Cameron.
The biggest jump came followed the Channel 4 debate between Miliband and Cameron, where markets priced in an increase in his chance of being Prime Minister from 38 per cent to 45 per cent. Its data predicts he pulled level with Cameron on the day of the BBC opposition debate and has advanced since then.
IG’s other markets are still pointing towards the Conservative winning more seats than Labour, 289 to 271, but not being able to form a government due to IG clients thinking that SNP will win 46 seats.
IG says it accurately called a no overall majority in the 2010 UK General Election, a victory for the “No” vote in the Scottish independence referendum from the start of 2014 and victories for Barack Obama and Boris Johnson in 2012.
IG Group head of dealing Matt Brief says: “Over the last 10 days IG clients have become increasingly convinced that the Conservatives will win the most seats in Parliament, but Ed Miliband will be the UK’s Prime Minister. The two most likely scenarios emerging are a Labour minority government informally ‘supported’ by the SNP, or another Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition. While our clients are convinced there will be a late swing towards the Tories, the longer the polls stay deadlocked the more unlikely it becomes that a late shift in support for Cameron will be enough to keep him in 10 Downing Street.”
