The five-year horizon was “especially bleak” for private equity funds over $1bn, while the slower-exit environment of recent years appears to be harming all funds, but larger funds to a greater degree, according to PitchBook’s Global Fund Performance Report covering Q4 of 2025.
Studying US-based deal multiples, this research finds that, in general, larger deals acquired by larger funds enter at a richer enterprise value/EBITDA multiple and take on more debt.
For example, small funds entering into deals with valuations below $25m have paid an average of 7 times EV/EBITDA, while large funds entering deals valued at $500m to $1bn have paid double that (14 times).
The report also concluded from its data that years of slow exits have left returns below historical averages, as most strategies’ recent track records continue to trail their long-run results.
However, venture capital is an exception as near-term returns have been significantly lifted by AI exposures. It is the only strategy in which the 1-year return exceeds the 10-year annualized return.
Natural resources funds posted their best year in 2025 since the post-pandemic period, boosted by the structural theme of energy security. The Iran War disrupting commodity markets also suggests strong quarters ahead as 2026 data gets ingested.
The report also analysed “tough times” for real estate across both long- and short-term performance horizons. The asset class has had to navigate the housing-led 2008 financial crash, the pandemic years and resulting inflation, all of which have been negative headwinds.
Evergreen indexes for PE and multi-asset funds have also surged up until May 2026. Direct lending performance flattened at the start of the year as the market digested the outflow environment, but performance is still up 6 per cent over the 1-year period, which may be surprising to many given the negative news flow for this strategy since the year began.
