Public support for triple lock falters, particularly among the young

Almost half of adults support government plans to maintain the triple lock on pension, but unsurprisingly the latest research shows a large generational divide on this issue.

Research from Canada Life shows 46 per cent of the population believe the triple lock should remain as it is. Currently this uprates the state pension each year by the highest of average earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent.

However the pandemic and impact of furlough pay means that average earnings this year are likely to be in the region of 8 per cent giving a significant boost to the state pension at a time when many people have lost their job and average pay over a two year period has fallen. 

The research found greater support for the triple lock among the over 50s, with almost six out of 10 (59 per cent) in favour of maintaining it in its current form. 

Only a third (34 per cent) of the under 50s wanted to keep the triple lock promise. 

Only 16 per cent of respondents supported a move to a less generous ‘double lock’, which would lead to an increase in line with inflation or 2.5 per cent. Even fewer people (14 per cent) supported the idea of finding a compromise to use a lower earnings figure with the furlough impact stripped out.

Almost a quarter (23 per cent) of respondents said they were unsure or uninterested in the decision.

Andrew Tully, technical director at Canada Life says: “Maintaining the triple lock has long been a manifesto promise. However, no-one could have predicted the 18 months we’ve just experienced with the effect of millions of people being placed on furlough, artificially boosting the earnings data as they return to work.

“The Government has a difficult path to navigate, to ensure the state pension remains affordable in what is a difficult time for the nation’s finances, while also bearing in mind it’s manifesto commitments. It’s important to remember that each 1 per cent rise in state pension costs the taxpayer around £850m a year.

“One option could be to strip out the artificial earnings growth from the data, making it more representative of the real underlying growth in earnings. The state pension would increase by a material amount, hopefully seen as fair in these exceptional circumstances, and making sure manifesto pledges are met.”

Since 2011/12, the following benchmarks have been used for the annual uprating in line with the triple lock guarantee.